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    International military security: profound changes and reshuffles

    國際軍事安全形勢:大變局與大動蕩

    來源:China Military Online責任編輯:Wang Xinjuan
    2020-12-29 13:35

    By Ling Yunzhi

    凌云志

    With the widespread COVID-19 pandemic and the lasting gaming among major powers, the year 2020 has seen profound and complicated changes in the international military security situation. Uncontrollable events such as massive conflicts or local warfare have not broken out between nations. Still, destabilizing factors affecting the world military security have obviously increased, with the ceaseless new problems and hotspots adding to the uncertainty of the international security environment, major-power relations, and regional situation.

    2020年,新冠肺炎疫情全球擴散,大國持續角力,國際軍事安全形勢繼續發生深刻復雜變化。國家間大規模沖突或局部戰爭等不可控事態并未出現,但影響世界軍事安全的不穩定因素也明顯增多;各種新問題、新熱點層出不窮,給國際安全環境、大國關系和地區局勢增加了諸多變數。

    Escalated military confrontation between major countries exacerbates risks.

    大國軍事對抗更為激烈,風險進一步加劇

    In 2020, major-country competition stands out as the keynote of international politics. Despite the global pandemic, the US and Russia have actively made deployments and waged a more intense military confrontation, which exacerbates the risk of armed conflicts and severely challenges global security and stability.

    2020年,大國競爭作為國際政治的主基調將更加凸顯,美俄不顧全球疫情處于爆發態勢,積極謀局布勢,掀起了更為激烈的軍事對抗,使得雙方軍事對抗的風險進一步加劇,也對全球安全與穩定構成了嚴峻的挑戰。

    Guided by its National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, the US, in the face of a strategic environment with mounting uncertainties, has got more focused on major-country competition and stressed reshaping the international order and major-country landscape under the “America first” policy. While Washington has kept pressuring Moscow by means of aggressive military provocations such as forward deployment, close-in reconnaissance, and strength-flaunting, Moscow has chosen to launch equivalent revenge at first opportunity.

    美國以《國家安全戰略》《國防戰略》等文件為指導,面對不確定性激增的戰略環境,更加聚焦大國競爭,強調以“美國優先”重塑國際秩序與大國格局,通過前沿部署、抵近偵察、武力炫耀等方式頻頻向俄羅斯施壓示強。面對美國咄咄逼人的軍事挑釁,俄羅斯也毫不示弱,選擇了第一時間的對等報復。

    As their relation worsens, it’s foreseeable that their confrontation in the military security sector will become more frequent and intense, exerting far-reaching impacts on the future trend of international military security.

    隨著美俄關系的日趨尖銳,可以預測,雙方在軍事安全領域的對抗還將會更為頻繁和激烈,對未來國際軍事安全形勢走向帶來深遠的影響。

    Regional disputes keep escalating amid a mixture of security threats.

    地區爭端持續升溫,多種安全威脅交織互動

    Although the international security situation has remained peaceful and stable in general in 2020, it has seen escalated local turbulences, rising challenges, and growing traditional and non-traditional security threats – the entwined security threats of various types have piled up to make the general situation more complicated.

    2020年,雖然國際安全形勢總體和平穩定,但局部動蕩加劇,各種挑戰增多,傳統安全威脅不降反升,非傳統安全威脅不減反增,多種安全威脅交織互動,傳導疊加效應明顯。

    First of all, there are more security uncertainties in China’s surrounding region, with aggravated gaming across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. Washington has intensified its military ties with Taiwan island through the so-called "Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019" and the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 , and has signed off on a number of arms sales deals to Taiwan, casting a dark shadow over the cross-Strait relation. Moreover, it has ramped up military activities in the South China Sea by sending military vessels and aircraft there more frequently and pushing its coast guard and marine corps to get involved too. Incomplete statistics show that US military aircraft carried out operations more than 2,000 times over the South China Sea in the first half of this year, normalizing its so-called cruise of the region under the guise of“freedom of navigation”.

    首先,我周邊安全變數增多,臺海、南海博弈加劇。美國先后通過所謂的“臺北法案”、“2021年國防授權法案”等加強與臺灣的軍事聯系,多次簽署對臺軍售案,使得兩岸關系不斷緊張。此外,美國還加強在南海地區軍事活動,強化??哲娡度?,推進海警、陸戰隊等介入南海。據不完全統計,美軍機上半年在南?;顒泳投噙_2000余次,以“航行自由”名義巡航南海已經“常態化”。

    Second, security risks have increased in the Indo-Pacific region owing to the deepened military cooperation among the US, Japan, Australia, and India. India has kept stirring up border conflicts and frictions while the pandemic is still raging across the country, and it has tried harder to rope in its neighbors for a certain edge. On November 3, the US-Japan-India-Australia Malabar 2020 joint exercise kicked off at the Bay of Bengal, which marked the return of Australia after it quitted the exercise 13 years ago and the first time that all four countries participated, giving another push for their military collaboration.

    其次,印太地區安全風險增加,“美日澳印”軍事合作進一步深化。印度在本國新冠肺炎疫情持續蔓延的情況下,依然不斷挑起邊境沖突,制造摩擦,并加大對周邊國家的拉攏力度,以謀求優勢。11月3日,由美國、日本、印度和澳大利亞共同舉行的“馬拉巴爾-2020”演習在孟加拉灣拉開帷幕。這是澳大利亞在2007年退出該演習13年后再次重返,也是美日澳印四個成員國的首次全部參加的演習,將四國軍事合作推進了一步。

    At last, hotspot issues pop up around the world with unending new problems. The military conflicts at Nagorno-Karabakh have left over 4,000 dead, 8,000 injured, and tens of thousands homeless. The assassination of Iran's general Soleimani and its chief nuclear scientist Fakhrizadehhas thrown the US-Iran relation further down the cliff. These events, while indicating a trend of instability in regional security, have also further accelerated the evolution of regional security order.

    最后,全球各地熱點頻發,新問題層出不窮。納卡地區軍事沖突造成4000余人死亡、8000余人受傷、數萬人流離失所。伊朗將領蘇萊曼尼、首席核科學家法赫里扎德先后遇刺身亡,美伊兩國關系進一步惡化。這些都表明地區安全形勢趨向動蕩不安,并進一步加速地區安全秩序的快速演變。

    Fast development of high-tech weapons marks a new stage of the arms race.

    高新武器快速發展,軍備競賽進入新階段

    In 2020, driven by the the demand of warfare and AI technology, all countries around the world are energetically developing new combating forces in the sea, air, space, and cyber domains, vying for strategic advantages in military technology and weapons and equipment by developing more advanced unmanned, stealth reconnaissance and assault arms. The global arms race has entered a new stage.

    2020年,在戰爭需求和人工智能技術驅動下,世界各國都在大力發展海、空、天、網等新型作戰力量,并通過研制更加先進的無人和隱形偵察打擊武器裝備,爭奪軍事技術和武器裝備發展的戰略優勢,使得全球軍備競賽進入一個新的階段。

    As the world’s strongest military power, the US has continued to advance the arms race in cutting-edge military segments and accelerated the development and deployment of unmanned autonomous platforms, strategic anti-missile systems, and tactical nuclear strengths leveraged on its technological superiority and alliance system. Its capabilities of space exploitation and space combat have obviously enhanced this year.

    作為世界上頭號軍備強國,美國繼續推動前沿軍事領域的軍備競賽,綜合運用技術優勢和盟友體系,加快無人自主平臺、戰略反導系統和戰術核力量的研發部署。此外,今年美國太空開發和太空作戰能力明顯提升。

    As the only country in the world that can counter the US on the military front, Russia, by developing asymmetrical and strong-deterrence combat forces, has prioritized new-generation warplanes, unmanned combat systems, stealth intelligent weapons, and global navigation and positioning systems in its military equipment development.

    作為世界上唯一能在軍事上與美國相抗衡的國家,俄羅斯以發展非對稱和強威懾戰力為依托,將新一代戰機、無人作戰系統、隱形化智能武器和全球導航定位系統作為軍隊裝備優先發展的項目。

    As the US and Russia are both intercontinental powers, and each represents the sea-power states and land-power states, a military confrontation between them is sure to endanger global peace and stability. The two countries will continue to scramble for resources and combat advantages in the polar regions, outer space, and cyber domain, stepping up the military research, development, and application of nuclear deterrence, hypersonic weapons, AI, and unmanned technologies. These will only make the world more insecure and unstable, leading to the accelerated military strength building of other countries out of concern for their own security. As a result, the global arms race will get increasingly fierce and severe.

    由于美俄都是具有世界影響的洲際型國家,又分別是海權國家和陸權國家的代表,其軍事對抗必將將會危及整個世界的和平與穩定。未來,美俄還將繼續加緊對極地、太空、網絡等領域資源和作戰優勢的爭奪,持續推進核威懾、高超音速武器、人工智能和無人技術等領域的軍事研發應用力度,這些都將會給全球安全帶來更大的不穩定性,引發其他國家對自身安全的擔憂,加快自身軍力建設,從而使得全球軍備競賽愈演愈烈。

    (The author is a researcher at the Centre for Asia-Pacific Development Studies, Nanjing University. This article is originally published on thepaper.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.)

    (作者系南京大學亞太發展研究中心研究員)

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